Arsenal vs. Leicester City: Preview, Predictions, Tips and Tactical Insights

Arsenal comes back to the Emirates Stadium after a heartbreaking draw with title rivals Manchester City. The Gunners focused on keeping their one goal lead after Trossard got the marching orders from Michael Oliver. They managed, but a last-minute equaliser by John Stones erased 50 minutes of hard work.

Leicester is struggling with adapting to the Premier League. The freshly promoted team is yet to gain three points from a game. Sitting in 15th place, they hope to bounce back. However, securing their first win this round will be tough against a team like Arsenal.

Quick Stats Zone

Brush up on your statistics for these two teams with the following rapid fire stats:

• Arsenal has 5 consecutive wins against Leicester. The last time these two met in 2023, Arsenal came out on top with a 1-0 victory. Martinelli was the goalscorer, right at the beginning of the second half.
• This is a rather peaceful duel. In the last 5 games, we saw under 4,5 cards and referee Samuel Barrott took out the yellow card for an average of 4 times per game in the 19 Premier League games he officiated.
• Arsenal has the second best clean sheet record in the Premier League, with 3 clean sheets and only 0,6 goals conceded per game
• The most red cards record goes to Arsenal. The Gunners received a red card for Declan Rice and another one for Leandro Trossard. Althoutgh both of them are highly controversial, statistics are statistics.

Arsenal Struggling Without Martin Ødegaard

Losing your best playmaker and facilitator is tough. We saw Arsenal struggling with their build up play against Manchester City, in the first half at least, but almost any team struggles when building up against City. The problem was more noticeable against Atalanta in the Champions League.

Arteta heavily relied on long balls from David Raya to break through Atalanta’s man-to-man pressing. It was not as successful as Arteta hoped. It doesn’t help that Atalanta also has one of the tallest squads in Serie A and usually wins their aerial duels. With Leicester it is more balanced. The host won 47,4% of their aerial duels while Leicester wins 46,5% of theirs.

This doesn’t mean that Arsenal is now looking lost and losing the ball all over the pitch, making huge mistakes in their build up play. It means that they lack the man to drop, get the ball, turn around and find that spark.

Leicester’s Pressing Might Cause Troubles

Leicester is one of those teams that can frustrate and annoy their opponents. In the second half against Everton, they doubled down on their pressing and generated double the amount of xG than in the first one. Although not much, with The Foxes finishing the first half with a measly 0,15 xG, they showed they can ramp it up.

They focused their energy on winning duels in midfield during that second half to control the tempo and disrupt Everton. The statistics highlight this well. They lead the league in blocks and they rank 3rd in tackles won in the attacking third. With Ødegaard absent, Arsenal may face increased pressure from the visitors. They’ll aim to win the ball and create problems, hoping to catch Arteta’s side off guard in their own half.

The Gunners may again resort to long balls from Raya, but this time with greater success, allowing Leicester to dominate possession. They are used to playing without the ball, having an average possession of just 41,8% (although last week’s derby with City lowered that average by quite a lot). Meanwhile, Leicester enjoyed a better share of possession with 45%.

Set Pieces and More Set Pieces

It’s becoming a recurrent theme. But I have to mention it. Both teams took advantage of their set pieces. Leicester scored their equaliser against Everton from a corner. Arsenal took the lead against Manchester City from a corner.

Although not as well prepared as Arteta’s side, Leicester has scored an average of 0,4 goals per game from set pieces, ranking them third so far, just below Arsenal and Aston Villa who scored 0,6 goals from said set pieces. This is a trademark of the Gunners, and I expect them to capitalize on it in this game. But do not overlook Leicester. Historically, the duels between these two sides didn’t produce many corners, with 4 out of their last 5 games having under 10,5 corners. Both will aim to make these chances count.

Leandro Trossard Will be Available for This Game

Even though he got the marching order for a second yellow card in the first half against Manchester City, Leandro Trossard will be available to play against Leicester. Since this is a second yellow card, Arsenal cannot appeal, as it is the case with a straight red card, but the Belgian has already served his suspension.

The rule states that a suspension for a second yellow card is served in the next domestic game. Since Arsenal already played their EFL Cup match against Bolton, winning 5-1, Leandro Trossard has served his suspension and is now available to play against Leicester City.

Conclusions, Predictions and Betting Tips

Arsenal are heavy favourites for this game, with the OPTA Supercomputer giving them a whooping 75,9% chance to come out on top. Arsenal is chasing the title this season after finishing just a few points behind Manchester City last year. They’ll be determined to secure three points, especially against weaker teams. Besides betting on the obvious favorites, consider these tips to boost your odds:

• Do not overlook Leicester’s Jamie Vardy. The striker has played against Arsenal 16 times and has scored 11 goals against the Gunners! Although his odds are around 5,50 (4.5/1) he might deliver!
• Bukayo Saka will look to continue his assist streak. If he gets an assist, he becomes the first ever player to assist a goal in each of his side’s first six games of a campaign. He has more assists than any other player so far. Odds for a Bukayo Saka assist hover around 2,37 (1.37/1).