Arsenal vs. Southampton Preview and Predictions: Gunners Aim to Capitalize on Chaotic Saints

Southampton travels to Emirates in the 7th round of the Premier League in what seems to be an endless search for clarity and their first win since coming back to the top flight of English football. Arsenal has completely overpowered Leicester City, another freshly promoted team and will look to do the same here.

In Southampton, things are looking chaotic. Starting without a striker, lacking penetration and shifting formations, trying to play out from the back but with meaningless passes. The Saints need to change something. Sometimes it is admirable to stick to your guns, but football is about results, and so far results speak.

Here are the main talking points as we head into this game:

Southampton’s Empty Possession

Southampton likes to copy Manchester City and play out from the back with quick passes. No wonder, since the owners, Sport Republic, aim to emulate what City Football Group did, but at a smaller scale. So far, Southampton has struggled to secure three points from any game, showing much smaller-scale results.

The statistics are favourable for them, but that’s it. The Saints enjoyed a fair share of possession, 60,7% as of writing, and a pass accuracy of 88,4%. This places them in the 4th spot, just behind Manchester City, Tottenham and Brighton. Impressive. However, another metric reveals a key difference. Although Southampton ranks near those teams in possession, they are far behind in creating shots from it.

Creating and Converting Shots, The Saints Underperform

Manchester City has a staggering 175 shot creating actions from open play so far, Southampton has just 88. The Gunners have not enjoyed as much of the ball, with just 48,7%, yet they generated 118 shot creating actions. Possession is valuable only if it leads to scoring chances. The following graph illustrates Southampton’s sterile possession compared to other possession-heavy teams.

I also need to add another thing regarding Southampton’s chances. Because, even though they do not create as many chances, they also can not convert them. Southampton has scored only three times this season, which places them dead last, together with Crystal Palace. Those three goals come from an expected goal (xG) of 8,91, which makes them the biggest underperformers in the season.

Arsenal is much more in line with the statistical expectations. On average, they scored twice per game, and they are in the top 5 teams for goals scored. They still underperformed their xG by -1,33, but it is not as big of an issue as Southampton’s lack of conversion. Of course, Bukayo Saka handles many of Arsenal’s chances, as the winger has 1,70 goal creating actions per 90 minutes, making him the biggest creator so far.

Tactical Preview and Dynamics

If Southampton insists on playing from the back, they will be faced with Arsenal’s pressing. The problem for Southampton lies in the midfield third, where The Saints tend to lose the ball often.

The Gunners are a team that press well and with high intensity, so getting the ball past midfield will be a key challenge for Southampton and their build up play structure. Against Bournemouth, where The Saints were faced with high intensity pressing, they were not effective in bypassing the press and failed to penetrate and push through. Their pass map against The Cherries reveals this aspect, with huge involvement and circulation of the ball between the keeper and the back four.

Arsenal will look to employ their aggressive attacking play and push through the wide areas, trying to put Bukayo Saka in a qualitative advantage. He will cut inside to create assists and take shots, as he did against Bournemouth. Southampton must tighten the space to prevent Saka from working his magic. On the other side, Calafiori demands close attention. He can shoot, drive into the box, and offers Arteta a strong offensive asset that provides an edge on that flank.

Set pieces will be another important area, as it is one of Arsenal’s trademarks. The Gunners scored three goals from set pieces, the most in the league, while Southampton should make their homework and drill those set pieces. I feel the visitors will not get many chances from open play, so having a suitable set piece routine will benefit them. So far, one of their three goals came from a set piece. And with Arsenal having a heavily drilled set piece strategy, Southampton will need to study and adjust their defense and not concede in this area.

Conclusions and Predictions

Arsenal are the big favourites of this encounter. The OPTA Supercomputer gives them a 78,5% chance to come out on top. It is hard to imagine Southampton breaking through Arsenal’s press and score a goal in this one, having scored only three times, while Arsenal conceded five goals. Although Leicester City managed to score two times, their first goal was a deflection, and their second one was a miracle that is hard to replicate.

Meanwhile Arsenal will capitalize on Southampton’s mistakes. The Saints are a team that has conceded many shots and goals due to their own errors.

Prediction: Arsenal to win + Arsenal Over 1,5 goals