Brighton vs Manchester City – Preview, Predictions and Live Stats – Round 11

Manchester City is in shock as they travel to AMEX Stadium in the last round before the second international break. The Citizens lost in a devastating 4-1 against Sporting in the Champions League and against Bournemouth in a surprising 2-1 defeat. Although it is not uncommon for Manchester City to have a few missteps at the start of the season, they will look to set things straight before the break. Brighton also come after a defeat against the most in form team so far, Liverpool, both in the EFL Cup and Premier League. Other than Liverpool, Chelsea was the only team to defeat the Seagulls in the Premier League.

Brighton vs Manchester City Live Stats

Follow real-time stats for Brighton vs Manchester City, including the main events and lineups! The data is updated every minute!

Form, Standings and Head to Head

Both teams are in overall suitable form. Although Manchester City has had a few missteps recently, they are ranked 2nd in the league, only two points behind Liverpool. They also had injuries with key players, such as Rodri, Kevin De Bruyne and Jack Grealish. They have exceeded the OPTA expectation, having 23 points from an expectation of 18,8.

Brighton also over-performed in this department. The OPTA expectations for the Seagulls were around the 12th spot on the table with 13,51 points, and right before round 11, they rank 8th with 16 points. Their form is also not bad, with only 2 defeats, 4 wins and draws.

Historically, things are looking drastic for Brighton. They have defeated Manchester City only twice, the last win being back in 2021 and drew against the Citizens in 2023. The other 13 encounters went in favour of Pep Guardiola’s team. This means that the visitors are undefeated in the last 6 consecutive games, and the hosts have not kept a clean sheet in 16 straight games against City.

Tactical Preview – Who Does it Best?

Both teams employ a similar style. High pressing, possession based football aimed at controlling the game. They rank high for possession and also, unlike Southampton for example, both teams use it wisely and penetrate, bringing the ball forward and attacking. They do not circulate it in their own half and call it a day.

Interestingly, both teams heavily employ the long shot. While City averages 7,8 shots from outside the box, Brighton does not trail far behind with 5,2. Statistically, whatever Brighton does, Manchester City does better. They shoot more, score more often, pass and keep the ball with greater efficiency and concede less. One thing that Manchester City will aim for is trying to profit from through balls. Brighton has been very vulnerable against this pass so far, with 26 line breaking passes that went through against them. This makes them the 4th worst team in the league at defending against through balls.

One thing where Brighton will dominate Manchester City will be in the air. The Citizens have one of the lower aerial success rates in the Premier League with 47,5% of aerial duels won, while Brighton ranks 4th with 52,7%. Lewis Dunk and Georginio Rutter are the Seagulls’ biggest aerial threats, boasting an impressive aerial win percentage of 57,1% and 69,6%.

Brighton vs Manchester City Predictions

Of course, Manchester City is the big favourite, with the OPTA Supercomputer giving them a 51,5% chance to get the three points at the AMEX Stadium. Brighton, meanwhile, has only half those chances with 25,3%. But I would not discount them. Manchester City is vulnerable right now, and they fell against Bournemouth. The Seagulls might capitalize on those missteps to gain three points and enter the international break with an excellent mood.

So here are a few predictions and tips to consider for this game:

• Both Teams to Score or Over 2,5: These are two teams with capable offensive players and who do not shy away from shooting. In their last 7 games, 6 of them ended over 2,5 goals and 5 of them with both teams scoring.
• Under 4,5 Yellow Cards: This has been the case in 4 of their last 5 games. This season, Manchester City averages 2 yellow cards per game, while Brighton 2,2.
• Manchester City to win or draw in the first half: There were few cases where Manchester City has entered half time at a disadvantage. And in the last 10 consecutive games against the Seagulls, they won the first half.