Chelsea vs. Brighton: Preview, Predictions and Tactics

Chelsea returns to Stamford Bridge from their 3-0 victory against West Ham, led by Nicolas Jackson with an amazing performance. Chelsea has set a historical record for West Ham. This is the first time The Hammers opened their season with three straight losses at home. With Nicolas Jackson growing more clinical and his collaboration with Cole Palmer is becoming one of the most fruitful in the Premier League, The Blues will look to break Brighton undefeated streak this season.

Here are the main talking points ahead of this game:

Quick Stats Zone

Brush up on your stats’ knowledge with the following statistical bites and trends:

• Chelsea won their last 4 consecutive games against Brighton, and the Seagulls have not kept a clean sheet in their last 8 games against The Blues.
• In this encounter, we usually see plenty of goals. Seven out of the last eight matches ended with both teams scoring, and their last 4 Premier League games ended with over 2,5 goals.
• Watch out for the yellow cards. The last five games played by these two teams ended with over 4,5 yellow cards.
• Brighton ranks 3rd in the league on possession, with an average of 62%, and is 1st in the league for take-ons that lead to shot creating actions. This illustrates perfectly Brighton’s capacity to create chances from turnovers and high pressing in transition.

The Battle for Control and Midfield

Both teams employ a high possession strategy, aiming to build-up from the back and keep the ball for as much as possible. Brighton has been more successful so far, averaging a possession of 62% compared to Chelsea’s 56,6%, but Enzo Maresca is obsessed with taking control of games and dictating the tempo.

Brighton might not have trouble to start their build-up play, because Chelsea rarely employs a very aggressive pressing structure, with only Cole Palmer and Nicolas Jackson often stationed up high and aiming to disrupt the play.

The big problem from Brighton will be once they break through the fragile first line of pressing and get in the second third. There, they will face the former “Albion” Moises Caicedo, whose defensive performances have been tremendous this season. He kept West Ham at bay with 8 tackles and 2 blocked shots and was active all over the pitch.

I also expect young Jack Hinshelwood to step up in midfield and contest captain Enzo Fernandez. It remains to be seen if Fabian Hurzeler will keep him in midfield or deploy him as a full-back. This decision paid out well. His 42nd minute header brought Brighton back in the game after conceding a penalty in the first 15 minutes. He had two key passes in the game and misplaced only four. But it’s up to Hurzeler.

Watch Out for Transitions – Chelsea’s Wolf Pack

Chelsea has been lethal in transition this season. Whenever they start and run in transition, they look like a lethal wolf pack that is rabid to get to the prey. Nicolas Jackson has been superb in transition, and along with Cole Palmer and Noni Madueke, they can be dangerous. They average two shots per game from counterattacks, making them the most efficient counterattacking team so far.

With Moises Caicedo being such an excellent defensive asset for Chelsea, it will be important for Brighton to avoid mistakes and give up the ball for Caicedo to set up Jackson or Madueke. Brighton can be vulnerable to counter-attacks when their full-backs are high in the pitch. Midfielders like Carlos Baleba will need to provide cover to prevent being exposed.

This goes both ways. Another former Brighton player, Marc Cucurella, is notorious for being caught high up and leaving up space. Kaoru Mitoma and Simon Adingra inject pace and creativity on the wings. They’ll look to exploit spaces left behind by Chelsea’s attacking full-backs, especially during quick transitions.

Half Spaces and Overloads

Since both teams are adepts of positional play, we will see plenty of overloads and both will try to create both qualitative and quantitative advantages. For Chelsea, it is Cole Palmer (surprisingly not Enzo Fernandez) who usually drops and links up the build-up, aiming to get a numerical advantage in midfield. Meanwhile, Brighton’s Danny Welbeck fulfills that role.

The wings will be another area where Chelsea will look to create overloads, especially on the right side. Marc Cucurella often does underlapping runs into the half space and he forms a good pair together with Jadon Sancho. Enzo Fernandez might also attack the half space, since Chelsea focuses their attack on the left side, with Enzo Fernández, Jadon Sancho, Nicolas Jackson and Marc Cucurella often working together. Brighton also insists on their left wing, with Kaoru Mitoma being their primary outlet on that side.

Conclusions and Predictions

This will be a tight one. Brighton can challenge any opponent. Chelsea has the home advantage, despite Stamford Bridge lacking its usual energy, and they also have greater squad depth. Maresca can opt for subs like Pedro Neto, Christopher Nkunku and Joao Felix, to turn the tide in his favour.

Chelsea has excelled in transition and capitalizing on the back line’s positioning, an area where Brighton has shown some vulnerability. While pressing high, Nottingham Forest could snatch a point from The Seagulls by exploiting their back line by launching Ramon Sosa and Jota Silva behind their line.

Prediction: Chelsea 2 – 1 Brighton