Chelsea vs. West Ham: Tactical Preview and Key Matchups to Watch

Chelsea head into this weekend’s game against West Ham with brittle confidence, after clinching a 1-0 victory at Bournemouth. Christopher Nkunku’s late strike, after a decisive through ball by Jadon Sancho secured the three points for Enzo Maresca’s men, while Robert Sánchez produced an extremely reliable performance, including a crucial penalty save, to keep Chelsea’s first clean sheet away in what feels like ages.

West Ham, meanwhile, is coming off a dramatic 1-1 draw at Fulham, where Danny Ings’ stoppage-time equalizer rescued a point in what was a largely frustrating afternoon for David Moyes’ side. The Irons struggled to create significant chances, amassing a xG of just 0.53.

Tactical Preview: Can Chelsea’s Possession Overcome West Ham’s Defensive Patience?

How will Chelsea look on the pitch? They will look to set up in their trademark 4-2-3-1 shape and dominate possession. Nothing new here so far. One fullback will invert, the most obvious candidate being Malo Gusto if he is available for this game (since he inverted under Enzo Maresca). If not, Cucurella will fill that role. But, the game’s interesting aspect is Enzo Maresca’s choice for the left wing starter.

After two disappointing performances by Pedro Neto, who had 25 touches and 10 completed passes in the game against Bournemouth (and this after coming from a more disappointing performance against Crystal Palace), will Maresca start Jadon Sancho?

Jadon Sancho’s debut at Chelsea has been ideal, assisting Nkunku and bringing energy on the left wing and collaborating with Marc Cucurella, whose underlapping runs and launches led to two dangerous crosses against Bournemouth.

Chelsea needs to make their possession more than just possession. Make it less sterile. More creative and penetrative. Inject that spark. Maresca needs to find a solution for Cole Palmer’s difficulties against Bournemouth, where he was man-marked and frequently fouled.

West Ham will accept Chelsea’s dominance in possession. We might see them wait, not press and concede control in non-threatening areas of the pitch. West Ham could exploit Chelsea’s vulnerability in transition. Bowen especially will look to catch Cucurella off guard, exploiting his advanced positioning, and his tendency to cut inside means Cucurella will need to stay disciplined.

The managers demonstrate their ability to detect problems and make changes to improve the game. Maresca bringing on Nkunku and Sancho, while Lopetegui brought on Paqueta and Ings to bring the equalizer were key moments in their previous game.

Key Matchups to Watch

Nicolas Jackson vs. Konstantinos Mavropanos

Jackson’s movement will be central to Chelsea’s attack, and his ability to find space between the lines could trouble West Ham’s defense. Jackson underperformed his xG by a bit, generating a xG of 2,52 but scored only twice. A statistic where Nicolas Jackson heavily trails behind are duels, with the forward winning just 21,4% of his duels, placing him in the bottom 5% of forwards. Meanwhile, Mavropanos thrives with a 73.9% duel win rate. So we might see Jackson struggling to impose himself on this one. Could Chelsea rely again on Nkunku to come and save the day?

Jarrod Bowen vs. Marc Cucurella

Jarrod Bowen will constantly look to exploit Cucurella’s advanced position. With 5 received progressive passes against Fulham, he is a veritable target up front. He can cut inside and create chances, like he did against Crystal Palace, and the 10 chances that he created place him in the top 15% of forwards. Meanwhile, Marc Cucurella has lacked a bit in terms of defensive prowess this season. With only 3 tackles and a 50% duel win rate, the Spaniard needs to step up his defensive game a bit. Otherwise, Jarrod Bowen might end up getting the same satisfaction as Erling Haaland.

Mohammed Kudus vs. Chelsea’s Other Full-back

There needs to be caution on Chelsea’s both wings. With Malo Gusto and Reece James injured, Mohammed Kudus will look to boost his 16 successful take-ons which make him the Premier League’s top dribbler so far. His high work rate and creativity means that whoever Enzo Maresca chooses to start will need to be on the lookout and not give him space to cross and create for his teammates. In case Enzo Maresca tries Disasi again, then I believe Kudus will not be as merciful as Bournemouth.

Key Stats and Data Analysis

West Ham hasn’t kept a clean sheet in 9 consecutive games against Chelsea, who is in second place with an average of 2 goals per game. Their 6 goal win against Wolverhampton definitely padded that stat, to be fair. Chelsea over-performed their xG of 5,8 by scoring 8 goals, while West Ham conceded 6.

Chelsea will score at least one goal in this game, especially given their offensive talent and depth. Offensively, they outnumber West Ham in every single statistic, having more shots on target, and a much bigger share of possession. Last time the two teams met, Chelsea was demolishing West Ham in a commanding 5-0 win. And historically, Chelsea has been the winner of this duel, with 14 wins over West Ham’s 8.

If we look at their form, both have been mixed. West Ham lost 2 games, won one and drew one, while Chelsea won 2 matches, lost once and drew once in the Premier League. Both teams have been quite inconsistent, with Chelsea either having commanding 6-2 wins, or struggling to make ends meet and rely on Sanchez to bail them.

Chelsea comes up as slight favourites in this duel, with bookmakers giving them a 2.10 odds to win compared to 3.20 for West Ham. Chelsea’s only scoreless game this season has been the opener against Manchester City. With West Ham keeping a clean sheet on only 4 occasions against Chelsea, a much better bet would be one for Chelsea scoring in this encounter.

Conclusions

Both teams enter this game with a distinct set of challenges. Chelsea wants to build on their 1-0 win over Bournemouth, where Christopher Nkunku’s late goal and Robert Sánchez’s reliability secured the win. But maybe, this time, they will look to do it much more comfortably. However, Enzo Maresca’s side must improve their creativity and find their spark to avoid a sterile possession.

West Ham will prioritize defense, like they usually do. They will look to annoy Chelsea and hit on the counter through Jarrod Bowen and Mohammed Kudus, exploiting the wings. They will block the central area and force Chelsea to go wide. David Moyes’ team struggled to create chances, something they’ll need to address. The real question is, will Chelsea give them the opportunity to create said chances?

This London derby promises an engaging game, with Chelsea’s controlling ambitions and West Ham seeking to exploit the gaps and capitalize on any blunders. Both sides will rely on key matchups and in-game adjustments, setting up a contested encounter.

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