Preview Spain vs Germany Euro 2024: Statistics, History, and Predictions

Spain and Germany will face each other in the Euro 2024 quarterfinals, in a match that feels like a final. Statistically, both teams are favorites to win the tournament and are the most in-form teams in the competition. Therefore, it is not far-fetched to say that the team winning this match will likely lift the trophy.

Probable Lineups

There are no injuries or suspensions for either team, so we expect the usual starting XI. Spain will start with Marc Cucurella, Aymeric Laporte, Robin Le Normand, and Dani Carvajal in defense. Fabian Ruiz will be in midfield alongside Pedri, with Rodri playing as the defensive pivot. The energetic attacking trio will consist of Nico Williams, Alvaro Morata, and Lamine Yamal.

For the hosts, and yes, in this case, we can truly call them hosts, the defensive line will include Joshua Kimmich, Antonio Rudiger, Jonathan Tah, and David Raum. Toni Kroos will play as the pivot, with Robert Andrich in midfield. Jamal Musiala, Ilkay Gundogan, and Florian Wirtz will be in midfield, supporting the lone striker, Kai Havertz.

Recent Form and Head-to-Head

Spain and Germany have not suffered any defeats. Spain won all their group matches and decisively defeated Georgia 4-1 in the round of 16. Germany had three wins and one draw (against Switzerland) in the tournament. However, Spain faced tougher opponents in the group stage (Italy, Croatia), whereas Germany had easier victories against Scotland and Hungary.

The last time the two teams met was in the group stage of the 2022 World Cup, ending in a 1-1 draw. The head-to-head record between the two teams is close, with Spain having 8 wins, 9 draws, and Germany 9 wins. Another interesting statistic is that no host country has ever been eliminated in the quarterfinals of this competition.

Looking at the quality and quantity of chances created, Spain leads in this aspect. Spain has created more chances than Germany, especially considering the quality of their opponents.

However, apart from their decisive 6-0 victory over Germany in a Nations League match, all other encounters between the two teams have had fewer than 3 goals scored. Defensively, Germany has been strong, conceding only two goals in this tournament, one of which was an own goal by Rüdiger.

Key Players and Who to Watch

Toni Kroos is one of Germany’s most established players, the team’s architect, and one of the most involved players in the host’s matches. He averages 122 touches and 102 accurate passes per game. He also takes Germany’s free kicks, so it’s expected he’ll have at least one shot in this match. Despite Spain’s aggressive pressing throughout the tournament, Kroos is highly experienced and one of the most resilient players under pressure.

Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams are the most dangerous duo at Euro 2024. At just 16 and 21 years old, respectively, they have delivered outstanding performances. Lamine Yamal has 2 assists and averages 3 dribbles per game, while Nico Williams has 1 goal, 1 assist, and averages 3 key passes per game. They are key reasons why Spain averages 7.3 corners per match, constantly attacking and challenging full-backs to deliver crosses.

In Germany’s defense, Antonio Rüdiger had an excellent match in the round of 16, with 4 blocked shots, 2 interceptions, and 2 tackles. He is one of the most experienced defenders, and together with Nico Schlotterbeck, forms a defensive duo that will pose significant challenges for Spain.

Kai Havertz has become a key player for Germany, especially after his goal in the round of 16 against Denmark. Initially criticized, Havertz has proven his worth with consistent performances in this tournament. His ability to find spaces and score goals makes him a significant threat to Spain’s defense. His recent form suggests he could be crucial in breaking down Spain’s defense.

Conclusions

Spain is the favorite in this match, but not by a large margin. OPTA simulations give them a 38% chance of winning, while Germany has a 34% chance. The match will not be easy for either team and is likely to be one of the most interesting quarterfinals. It feels like an early final, as both teams are favorites to win the tournament. The winner will face either Portugal or France in the semifinal.