Euro 2024 Preview: Spain vs. France – French Pragmatism Meets Spanish Style

Spain and France are set to clash in the Euro 2024 semifinals at the Allianz Arena in Munich. Luis Enrique’s Spain is the only team with a perfect record, winning all their matches. Meanwhile, Les Bleus haven’t scored a single goal from open play, relying solely on penalties and own goals.

Probable Lineups and Absences

No absences for the French team, with the lineup expected to be largely the same as the one that faced Portugal in the quarterfinals. Kylian Mbappe and Randal Kolo Muani will start as forwards, with Antoine Griezmann playing in a more free-roaming role.

The only change will be in midfield, where Adrien Rabiot (who was suspended for the quarterfinals) will come back into the starting lineup in place of Eduardo Camavinga, resuming his usual position alongside N’Golo Kante and Aurelien Tchouameni. The backline will consist of Jules Kounde, Dayot Upamecano, William Saliba, and Theo Hernandez. In goal, it will be “Magic Mike” Maignan as usual.

Spain has three notable absences. Pedri is out injured after a tackle from Toni Kroos in the quarterfinals, while Dani Carvajal and Robin Le Normand are suspended after picking up yellow cards in the same match. This means that Nacho Fernandez and Jesus Navas are likely to start in defense alongside Aymeric Laporte and Marc Cucurella. In midfield, Dani Olmo, the man of the match in the quarterfinals, will replace Pedri and play alongside Fabian Ruiz and Rodri. In attack, we will see de la Fuente’s classic trio of Nico Williams, Alvaro Morata, and Lamine Yamal.

Head-to-Head and Statistics

The last time the two teams met was in the 2021 Nations League, where France managed to come back after a goal by Oyarzabal in the 64th minute. The French responded through Karim Benzema just two minutes later, and Kylian Mbappe’s goal in the 80th minute secured the victory for France.

In the last 7 matches between the two teams, only one had more than 2 goals scored, and the last 8 matches ended with fewer than 5 yellow cards given. The referee for this semifinal will be Slavko Vinčić, who averages 4.15 yellow cards per match and 0.21 red cards.

La Furia Roja has a good record against Les Bleus, with 16 wins, 7 draws, and 13 losses, and they are the favorites in this match, with OPTA’s computer giving them a 38% chance of reaching the final, while France has a 31% chance.

The most interesting statistic is the offensive efficiency of the two teams. Spain has scored 11 goals with an average of 7.2 shots on target per match, compared to France’s average of just 4.2 shots on target. Didier Deschamps’ team has not scored any direct goals; all their goals have come from own goals or penalties, despite generating a total xG of 7.3.

On the other end of the field, France has the best defense so far, with an average of 0.74 goals conceded per match, and Mike Maignan has had a notable performance, saving 94% of the shots on target.

Key Players and Who to Watch?

Looking at the top 5 French players by shot-creating actions reveals an interesting fact. Jules Kounde and N’Golo Kante rank 3rd and 4th, respectively, highlighting France’s creativity problem. Jules Kounde is a full-back and N’Golo Kante is a defensive midfielder, neither of whom should typically feature in this category.

Marcus Thuram and Randal Kolo Muani have not had notable performances in this tournament. Marcus Thuram has generated an xG of only 0.24, with an average of 4.15 shots per match, placing him in the bottom third of forwards. He is also in the bottom third for shot-creating actions, and ranks in the bottom 15% for shots on target percentage among strikers at Euro 2024.

On the other hand, Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams are among the best, if not the best, wingers in this tournament. Lamine Yamal averages 0.83 assists per match and 1.10 shots on target, while Nico Williams has 0.29 assists per match and 0.49 xA, making him the player who has created the most direct goal-scoring chances.

Both Spain and France showcase their incisiveness on the flanks, where they find their main source of depth. France relies on Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele, while Spain depends on Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal. Therefore, it will be interesting to watch the flank battles in this match, seeing how each team defends the wings and which team adapts more quickly.

Conclusions

Considering the history of their meetings and the high stakes—a spot in the Euro 2024 finals—I expect a low-scoring match. France has struggled to score in this tournament and has played defensively, so it is unlikely that we will see a game full of goals and dramatic turnarounds.

Spain has scored at least one goal in every match (except against Italy, where they won thanks to Calafiori’s own goal, although Spain created many chances in that game and generated an xG of 2.02) and is a strong offensive force. However, France has been one of the most efficient defensive teams, so it is unlikely that Spain will completely break down France’s defense.