France vs Belgium Nations League Preview: Deschamps to Rotate as Mbappé Benched

France’s Nations League hopes hang in the balance as they welcome Belgium to Lyon, at the Groupama Stadium, desperate to bounce back from their bruising 3-1 defeat to Italy.

With Didier Deschamps poised to overhaul his starting XI—resting Kylian Mbappé and introducing fresh faces—the pressure is on Les Bleus to find the right formula against a Belgian side determined to settle an old score.

France’s Troubles: A Disappointing Start and Lack of Inspiration

France’s Nations League campaign got off to a poor start with a 3-1 home defeat against Italy, despite an early goal from Bradley Barcola. The Parisian winger gave France the lead just 12 seconds into the match, but Italy gradually grew into the game, leveling through Federico Dimarco before taking control in the second half. Italy’s further goals from Davide Frattesi and Giacomo Raspadori secured a deserved win as France looked increasingly disjointed.

Didier Deschamps’ side struggled in several areas. While they had early chances and periods of dominance, their overall creativity was lacking, and their midfield was often overrun. Deschamps’ substitutions, particularly the introductions of Marcus Thuram and Ousmane Dembélé, did little to change the game’s direction, and the team’s low xG (0.86) reflected their inability to create quality chances.

Mbappé Out, Thuram In: Deschamps Looks to Reset France for Belgium Test

Now facing Belgium, Deschamps is expected to rotate his squad heavily. Most notably, Kylian Mbappé will drop to the bench, making way for Marcus Thuram to lead the line. Although he had 65 touches in the game against Italy, only 11 were taken into the opposition box, and the French superstar had only one shot on target.

Of course, nobody contests Mbappe’s flair and talent but he struggled to have an impact in Dechamps’ system, both against Italy and in the entire Euro 2024 campaign. Having an average of 1,8 shots on target in Euro 2024 compared to his 2,5 so far in La Liga and 2.2 in last season’s Champions League is very illustrative of his lesser impact when playing under Deschamps.

France’s defense will also see changes, with Lucas Digne set to come in at left-back and William Saliba retaining his spot in the center. Meanwhile, the midfield will be reshuffled, with AC Milan’s Youssouf Fofana partnering Manu Koné, who is expected to make his first start for the national team after Warren Zaïre-Emery’s injury.

Michael Olise, who made his debut against Italy, will retain his place in the starting lineup, offering a creative spark alongside Randal Kolo Muani and Dembélé. Deschamps will be hoping these changes bring more balance and energy to a team that needs to recover quickly from their opening setback.

Belgium’s Motivation: Revenge and Redemption

Belgium, meanwhile, will be heading into this match with motivation from both recent and distant history. They kicked off their Nations League campaign with a 3-1 win over Israel, securing victory thanks to a strong second-half performance. Kevin De Bruyne led by example with a brace, and Youri Tielemans added a third goal as Belgium posted an impressive xG of 3.53. Despite missing a penalty, Lois Openda also contributed significantly to Belgium’s attacking threat.

However, Belgium’s recent pain comes from their Euro 2024 exit at the hands of France. In a tight and cagey Round of 16 match, Belgium were knocked out by an 85th-minute own goal from Jan Vertonghen (which can be seen as another testament of the lackluster creativity in France’s offensive system). It was a bitter end to a poor tournament for Belgium, and the defeat still lingers in the minds of Domenico Tedesco and his players. Ahead of this Nations League encounter, Tedesco admitted that the memories of that loss have not been forgotten.

“It would be a lie if I said that match is forgotten. It still hurts. I often think about the European Championship,” Tedesco told reporters. The Belgian coach believes his side were overly cautious and adapted their game plan too much to counter France in that knockout match. As a result, he’s determined to approach this game with more ambition and less fear. “We adjusted excessively. You always have to analyze your opponent, but we learned from that experience.”

Belgium will be looking to take advantage of France’s vulnerability following their defeat to Italy. Tedesco has a strong squad at his disposal, and his side’s ability to turn the tide in the second half against Israel will give him confidence that they can exploit France’s weaknesses, particularly in defense. Belgium’s attacking options, led by De Bruyne and supported by the pace of Jérémy Doku and Dodi Lukebakio, will look to target France’s backline, which is expected to undergo significant changes.

Key Battles

Thuram vs. Faes and Theate

With Kylian Mbappé set to be rested, Marcus Thuram will lead the line for France. His physicality and ability to hold up play will be crucial as he faces Belgium’s central defensive pairing of Wout Faes and Arthur Theate. Thuram will need to assert himself early if France are to gain a foothold in the game.

De Bruyne vs. Fofana and Koné

Kevin De Bruyne will be the key figure for Belgium, orchestrating their play from midfield. He’ll come up against Youssouf Fofana and Manu Koné, who will be tasked with containing him. If De Bruyne is given space to operate, Belgium’s chances of controlling the match will increase dramatically.

Barcola vs. Castagne

Bradley Barcola, who impressed with his early goal against Italy, will likely start again and face Timothy Castagne down Belgium’s right flank. Barcola’s pace and direct approach caused problems for Italy, and Castagne will need to stay disciplined to avoid being exposed in one-on-one situations.

The Tactical Outlook

For France, this match is about responding to adversity and finding the right balance. Deschamps will be hoping that the changes he makes, particularly the inclusion of Koné in midfield and Thuram in attack, will add more energy and composure. The midfield battle will be critical, as France must avoid being overrun by Belgium’s De Bruyne-led attack.

Belgium, on the other hand, will seek to capitalize on France’s uncertainty. Tedesco will likely stick with a similar tactical approach to the one that proved successful against Israel, with De Bruyne as the focal point. The pace of Doku and Lukebakio on the wings will be crucial in stretching France’s defense, while Openda will be looking to make amends for his penalty miss by making a more decisive impact in front of goal.

Prediction

With both sides looking to bounce back for different reasons—France from a disappointing defeat and Belgium from the memory of their Euro exit—this match is poised to be an intense, closely-fought encounter. Belgium’s recent form and the motivation for revenge give them a slight edge, especially with France expected to rotate heavily.

Belgium’s superior form, combined with their determination to right the wrongs of their last meeting with France, could see them edge this contest. However, if Deschamps’ changes click, France have the firepower to turn the game in their favor. Either way, expect a thrilling contest between two top European sides.