Inter vs Arsenal – Preview, Predictions and Live Stats – Champions League Round 4

Arsenal vs Inter Milan is the headliner of Round 4 of the Champions League. Both teams are still unbeaten in the Champions League and have 7 points, with Inter Milan having a better goal difference of +5 compared to the Gunners’ +3. Although both are unbeaten in European Competitions, Arsenal has been struggling domestically.

The Gunners have not won a game in the Premier League’s last three rounds. They come off a disheartening defeat against Newcastle United, a draw against title rivals Liverpool and a surprising defeat against Bournemouth. Struggling with injuries and the absences of key players such as Ricardo Calafiori and Martin Odegaard, Mikel Arteta is trying to remain in the title race.

Meanwhile, Inter Milan is in the second position of Serie A, just one point behind Napoli and are unbeaten in their last 8 consecutive games. They do not have concerning injuries coming into this game.

Inter vs Arsenal Live Stats

Follow real-time stats for Inter vs Arsenal, including the main events and lineups! The data is updated every minute!

Set Pieces and Wings

Arsenal’s set piece routines have been a key strength for the team in the Premier League and across Europe. Whenever the Gunners take a free kick from a dangerous position, the camera often pans to Nicolas Jover, who designs and implementing their set piece strategies. However, set pieces remain an area of difficulty for both Arsenal and Inter. Arsenal conceded 11 goals so far in the Premier League while Inter Milan is in the same situation with 13.

One thing stands out. Both teams have conceded 4 goals from a set piece. Interestingly enough, both sides also scored 4 times from a set piece. This could play a key role in breaking the deadlock and determining who takes home the three points. Because I feel we will have a strong deadlock in this game. Arsenal has struggled to create chances in the Champions League so far, generating a xG of just 3,65, half of Inter Milan’s. But they are also a defensively solid team.

Arsenal relies offensively on Bukayo Saka. So far he did not disappoint, with 10 G+A in the Premier League. This is clear in Arsenal’s attacking patterns, with 44% of their attacks directed down the right wing. Meanwhile, Inter has a bit more of a balanced approach, spreading evenly, but still they favour their left side, where Federico Dimarco is the star player.

These two teams have a brief history, having faced each other only twice, back in the 2003 Champions League. Although both of their past games were high-scoring games (3-0, 1-5), lots of things have changed since then.

Inter vs Arsenal Injuries

Arsenal has faced injury challenges, though for this match they’re missing only two key players: Riccardo Calafiori and Martin Ødegaard. Ødegaard, improving steadily, might return for the weekend game against Chelsea, but he’ll sit this one out. Another concern for Mikel Arteta is Declan Rice, who missed training. We do not know whether or not he will start against Inter Milan.

Inter Milan, meanwhile, is in a better position, with Carlos Augusto as their only absentee.

Inter:
– Tajon Buchanan – Shin Injury
– Carlos Augusto – Muscle Injury
– Kristjan Asllani – Injury

Arsenal:
– Ricardo Calafiori – Knee Injury
– Kieran Tierney – Muscle Injury
– Takehiro Tomiyasu – Knee Injury
– Martin Odegaard – Ankle Injury

Inter vs Arsenal Predictions

This is a close contest, with the OPTA Supercomputer giving Inter Milan a 37,9% chance to come out on top, while Arsenal wins in 34,5% of their simulations. For me, this screams “low scoring” game, as we have seen Inter Milan play against another top-tier English team in their Champions League debut ending in a stark 0-0 draw. So here are a few predictions and tips to consider:

Inter Milan to win or draw: Arsenal has been in poor form lately, and I do not see them coming out on top in this one. Since this game might as well be a goalless affair, I would not count on Inter Milan, who also struggled against the Young Boys and won in the last minute.

Under 2,5 Goals: As I said before, this smells like a low-scoring affair, so this one seems natural. Arsenal scored more than one goal just once against PSG and Inter Milan against Crevna.

Bukayo Saka 1+ Shots on Target: This might be a bold one, but if someone will shoot for Arsenal, it will probably be Saka. I don’t expect the two teams to bombard each other with shots, but so far Saka averages 1 shot on target in the Champions League.