Liverpool vs. Bournemouth: Detailed Preview and Predictions

Liverpool bounced back in the Champions League after their defeat with Nottingham Forest and turned around a 1-0 early lead by AC Milan. Bournemouth held their own at home against The Blues. They generated chances and held Chelsea back. Christopher Nkunku’s late goal and Jadon Sancho’s electric performance robbed them of the three points.

Now heading back to Anfield, Liverpool will look to recover their form in the Premier League and Bournemouth will look to disrupt that. These will be the main talking points for this encounter:

Quick Statistics and Head to Head

Here are some quick statistics and insights to keep in mind for this game:

• Liverpool has won the last 3 consecutive games against Bournemouth and in 9/10 games we saw over 2,5 goals.
• Liverpool dominates the possession, averaging 60% on the ball and 86,6% pass accuracy, compared to Bournemouth’s 43% and 75.5% pass accuracy.
• Bournemouth hasn’t kept a clean sheet this season. Liverpool has 3/4 clean sheets.
• In 9 out of their last 10 games, we saw under 4,5 yellow cards. Liverpool has an average of 2 yellow cards per game, while Bournemouth averages 3 cards.
• In 5 out of 6 games between these two, we saw over 10,5 corners. With Liverpool’s dynamic attack and wingers and Bournemouth’s defensive solidity, this trend might continue.
• Liverpool averages 7 corners per game and Bournemouth averages 6 corners.

The Pressing Matter at Hand

Liverpool is renowned for their high pressing and intensity in transition. That is Jurgen Klopp’s legacy at the club. And it still works. With AC Milan they forced turnovers high up the pitch, generating chances and breaking up the Rossoneri’s build-up. Whenever they lost the ball, they looked to recover it quickly and prevent the counter attack not by falling back, but by stepping forward.

That’s one thing Bournemouth did against Chelsea as well. They pressed high up the pitch, with intensity aiming to disrupt Maresca’s build-up. They generated a higher xG than Chelsea, illustrating that they can create chances through pressing. Defensively, they were solid, and it took a brilliant vision and through ball by Sancho and extreme composure by Nkunku to break that defense.

Liverpool can break through the press, with their “up, back and through” combinations and triangles formed during build-up. They are a much more drilled side than Chelsea and will probably have more luck breaking through Bournemouth’s press.

Liverpool’s full-backs need to be careful not to be caught high up the pitch in transition, and we saw against Milan that Trent Alexander-Arnold and Konstantinos Tsimikas stuck more to the touchline and started low during build-up to defend the wide areas. But, so do Bournemouth’s full-backs. Because Salah always stays up high on the right wing to be the primary outlet for Liverpool’s counters.

Set Pieces Might Be Crucial.

The latest games showed us how set pieces might be a key turning points. In the North London Derby, Arteta’s side got the three points from a set piece. Liverpool got their imposing Champions League win against Milan from both centre-backs scoring from set pieces.

Bournemouth is a physical team, and they are a veritable threat at set pieces. They scored 11 goals from set pieces last season. Yet Virgil van Dijk has won 76% of his aerial duels and Ibrahima Konate has won 88% of his. Impressive aerial capabilities. Yet both teams also conceded goals from set pieces. Although this season none of them had set piece trouble, both teams conceded 10 goals last year from corners and free kicks. With a game that will probably have many corners, the goal threat looms in the air.

Depth Will be an Important Factor

Cody Gakpo has been absolutely stunning against AC Milan and Liverpool has a lot of offensive depth on the bench. They have a very versatile and fluid attack, with complex rotations that make opposing teams’ life difficult. And we haven’t actually seen the entire depth of Liverpool’s bench, with Federico Chiesa only playing the last few minutes. Liverpool can rotate and keep their offense fresh and inspire to power through the busy schedule.

Conclusions and Predictions

Both teams will look to press aggressively and catch the opposition in transition, disrupting their build-up play and trying to force turnovers. With a clash that usually produces plenty of corners, we might see a physical duel with threat coming from set pieces and headers.

Liverpool are heavy favourites, with OPTA giving them a 69,7% chance to come out on top in this duel. Still, it’s not unlikely for Bournemouth to score as well. Both teams to score are looking likely, with odds of 1,7 and you might count on Bournemouth to score, but Liverpool to come out on top.

My Prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Bournemouth

If you’re following the Premier League this weekend, you might also be interested in my preview for Chelsea vs. West Ham!