Manchester City vs. Brentford Match Preview and Tips: Can Brentford Break Manchester City’s Perfect Start at the Etihad?

Coming back after the international break, Manchester City prepares to host Brentford at the Etihad Stadium. Both teams have something to prove, with Manchester City looking to continue their perfect start to their season and Brentford is looking to test their ambitions against the benchmark of the Premier League.

Quick Statistics and Form Zone

Here are some quick statistical bites to keep in mind when watching the game:

• The two teams met only 6 times so far, and Manchester City came out on top in 4 of those encounters. OPTA gives them a 76,1% chance to come out on top in this duel.
• In 4 out of those 6 games, we saw over 10,5 corners, which is pretty common when a team with dynamic wingers plays against a compact formation. City also averages 8 corners per game this season.
• For yellow cards, City averages 1,7 yellow cards and Brentford averages 2. Referee Darren Bond takes out the yellow card 3,24 times per officiated game.
• Jérémy Doku, carried the ball up 747.8 metres, 300m more than any other player and has 64 progressive carries

Manchester City’s Relentless Pursuit of Perfection

Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City has begun the season in dominant form, keeping a perfect record after three games. Their recent 3-1 victory over West Ham United at the London Stadium was dominant, both in scoreline and performance metrics.

So, what do you expect from Pep Guardiola’s side when we talk about metrics? Of course, possession, passing and dominating the tempo. This is the exact picture that the stats paint. City registered an expected goals (xG) of 3.16 compared to West Ham’s 0.68. They controlled 68% of possession and completed 90.7% of their passes (691 out of 762 attempts).

And of course, who was in the middle of City’s showcase offence? The one and only, Erling Haaland. The Norwegian attacker netted his second consecutive hat-trick. He took five shots with four on target, accumulating a xG of 1.7 while post-shot xG (PSxG) stood at 1.16. That is indeed some quality finishing.

Haaland’s movement off the ball and positioning made him a constant menace. After all, that’s his trademark right there, pinning the defense and making sure the centre-backs are constantly on the lookout.

Kevin De Bruyne was the perfect complement to Haaland’s heroics, playing a pivotal role in Manchester City’s dominance. His influence was unmistakable, with 105 touches—second only on the team—and he was instrumental in creating 10 shot-creating actions (SCA).

Brentford’s Clinical Edge Against the Saints

Brentford arrives at the Etihad hyped by a convincing 3-1 victory over Southampton at the Gtech Community Stadium. In a match featuring 38 shots, the Bees were more efficient and ruthless in capitalizing on their opportunities, despite Southampton enjoying 63% possession.

Bryan Mbeumo, who scored twice, influenced Brentford’s victory. His first goal came from being in the right place at the right time, slotting home a rebound after Kevin Schade’s shot hit the post. His second was a product of great pressing, taking advantage of a defensive error to double Brentford’s lead. So what were the statistical expectations? Well, maybe’s xG was 0.8, with a xG on target (xGOT) of 0.97, so he over-performed.

Yoane Wissa also played a pivotal role, adding another goal and being a constant threat throughout the match. Wissa took six shots, with two on target, and recorded an xG of 1.1. He also contributed to eight shot-creating actions, making him a key piece in Brentford’s attacking dynamics.

Brentford was resilient against a Southampton side that took 18 shots. Ethan Pinnock and Nathan Collins formed a solid central partnership. Pinnock, despite picking up a yellow card, was effective, making crucial interventions and maintaining an 88.2% pass completion rate. Goalkeeper Mark Flekken was dependable, making five saves with a save percentage of 83.3% and a PSxG of 0.7, making sure Brentford held onto their lead.

Tactical Battle and Key Matchups

The upcoming game promises an interesting tactical battle between Pep Guardiola’s possession-heavy philosophy and Thomas Frank’s pragmatic, counter-attacking approach. Manchester City will look to impose their dominance through their trademark high pass completion rates and fluid positional play. Nothing new here. This is what City always does.

Meanwhile, Brentford may opt for a more measured, disciplined setup, prioritizing defensive solidity and quick transitions. Their recent win over Southampton proved that they can score by capitalizing on their opponent’s mistake. The question here is, will Manchester City make them?

Bryan Mbeumo, Yoane Wissa, and potentially Keane Lewis-Potter will be leading the line, Brentford as a forward trio with pace and directness—capable of unsettling City’s top line on the break.

The midfield battle will be crucial, with Christian Nørgaard likely central to Brentford’s chances of disrupting City’s flow, namely De Bruyne’s. Nørgaard’s 88.9% pass completion rate against Southampton and his involvement in two shot-creating actions underscore his influence. His head-to-head with Kevin De Bruyne will be one of the game’s defining duels, as Nørgaard looks to stifle City’s architect.

Out wide, the wings will be another critical zone. City’s likely full-back pairing of Joško Gvardiol and Rico Lewis will have their hands full with Mbeumo and Wissa, whose speed and ability to exploit the spaces behind advancing defenders could offer Brentford a vital route to goal. If Manchester City over-commit, those wide battles could provide the visitors with the chances they need to hurt Guardiola’s side.

Injury Updates and Squad Depth

Manchester City may have concerns over the availability of Phil Foden and Savinho because of injuries. However, the depth of Guardiola’s squad offers ample alternatives. I expect Jack Grealish to be prominently featured, considering his 90% pass completion rate and his contribution to seven shot-creating actions against West Ham. His contributions to England’s squad also boost his confidence levels, and he needs to keep up this momentum.

It is also possible we may not see Erling Haaland perform in this game. After the death of a close friend, the Norwegian missed training on Wednesday and Pep Guardiola will start him only if he wishes.

Brentford might be without Kristoffer Ajer, who left the field injured in their last match. Mads Roerslev could fill the void, having performed solidly after coming on, with an 84% pass completion rate and involvement in two shot-creating actions.

What to expect at the Etihad?

Manchester City are clear favorites, with OPTA giving them a whooping 76,1% chance to win this encounter. But Brentford has shown they can challenge top sides. City’s dominance in possession and chance creation so far in this season, suggests they will impose themselves early, seeking to unlock Brentford’s defense with their complex rotations. This is no surprise.

Brentford’s hopes may depend on their ability to remain compact defensively and exploit City on the break. Their efficiency in front of the goal—they scored three times from a xG of 2.8 against Southampton—proves they can capitalize on limited opportunities.

While Brentford’s resilience and attacking threat cannot be underestimated, Manchester City’s quality across the pitch is likely to be decisive. Expect City to control the match, with Haaland (if he chooses to play) poised to add to his already impressive goal tally. Brentford will need a disciplined performance and perhaps a bit of fortune to come away with an excellent result.

If you’re watching this round of the Premier League, you might also enjoy my previews for Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest, Southampton vs. Manchester United and Chelsea vs. Bournemouth!