Math Preview Spain – England: Euro 2024 Final, Statistics and Key Players

Spain and England will face each other in the Euro 2024 final in Berlin, after Ollie Watkins took the Three Lions to their second consecutive final with a goal in the 90th minute against the Netherlands. Spain earned their place in the final with a spectacular victory over France. Thus, England has the chance to win their first European Championship title, while Spain is vying to become the team with the most titles won.

Probable Lineups

There are no suspensions for the Euro 2024 final, even though players received yellow cards in the semifinals that would have made them eligible for suspension. The only notable absence is Pedri, the Spanish midfielder who was injured in the quarterfinals against Germany after a foul by Toni Kroos.

I expect the same lineups as in the semifinals. For Spain, Daniel Carvajal will return to his right-back position after missing the semifinal due to yellow card suspension from the quarterfinals. The defense will also include Marc Cucurella on the opposite flank, with Aymeric Laporte and Robin Le Normand as the central defenders. Rodri and Fabian Ruiz will play in front of the back four, with Nico Williams, Lamine Yamal, and Dani Olmo in midfield behind Alvaro Morata.

For England, Kyle Walker, John Stones, and Marc Guehi will form the three-man defense. Bukayo Saka, along with Kieran Trippier or Luke Shaw (it will be interesting to see if Shaw starts given his limited playing time in this tournament), will play as wing-backs, with Kobbie Mainoo and Declan Rice in central midfield. Phil Foden and Jude Bellingham will share the number 10 role, with Harry Kane leading the attack.

Statistics and Head to Head

The last time these two teams met was in 2018 in the Nations League, where England won 3-2, with two goals from Raheem Sterling and one from Marcus Rashford. England has won 14 of the 27 encounters, three ended in a draw, and Spain has emerged victorious 10 times. England has yet to win a European Championship title, while Spain has three titles, the most along with Germany.

Spain excels both offensively and defensively. They are the team with the most goals scored in this edition of the European Championship, with a total of 12 goals scored and only two conceded. In contrast, England has conceded four goals and scored a total of seven, excluding goals from penalty shootouts.

In the graph above, we can see that Spain is the team that has created the most and highest-quality chances, with a total xG of 10.9, while England has managed to generate an xG of 5.5. Both teams have scored more than their generated xG, indicating that both have offensive efficiency. However, Spain has managed to create more chances throughout the tournament.

Spanish Pressing and Runs In-Behind

Spain adopts an aggressive pressing formation, pushing the back line up and constantly contesting possession. Both England and Spain are teams that maintain high possession, but de la Fuente’s style is much more direct compared to Southgate’s. England hasn’t had the best or most disciplined pressing structure, but Spain is also vulnerable to pressure. We saw several times in the match against Germany, where the hosts closed down passing options during the build-up, forcing Unai Simon to clear the ball and often concede possession.

Spain’s pressing structure will give England opportunities to send players behind the defensive line if they can bypass the aggressive press. The issue is that England’s starting lineup lacks explosive players who can sprint behind the defense and capitalize on this opportunity. Harry Kane, though one of the most creative forwards, is not accustomed to exploiting spaces behind the defense. We might see Ollie Watkins introduced again towards the end of the match, or possibly even earlier.

Key Players and Battles

Although Lamine Yamal has been one of the best players in Euro 2024, I believe the real battle will be on the opposite flank. Spain heavily relied on the combination of Nico Williams and Marc Cucurella in the semifinal against France; most of Spain’s attacks came from that side. The two have a constant rotation, where each alternates between occupying the wing and moving into the box or positioning themselves in the half-space on that side.

England needs to respond similarly by focusing on that flank to exploit Cucurella’s defensive presence. There have been several instances in this tournament where Cucurella was caught too far forward or failed to block crosses from his side. On the other side, Dani Carvajal is a much harder defender to exploit than Cucurella. Therefore, Saka will be a key player in this match and must capitalize on the spaces left by Cucurella.

Besides Saka, Cucurella, and Nico Williams, we also need to discuss Rodri and Kobbie Mainoo. These two players are crucial for their respective teams. Rodri has had a passing accuracy of 94% in this Euro 2024 tournament, while Kobbie Mainoo had an excellent performance in the semifinal, constantly attacking open spaces and creating shooting opportunities for his team. Therefore, I expect both Kobbie Mainoo and Rodri to be marked man-to-man in this match to limit their influence on the game.

Conclusions

Spain is favored to win their fourth title at Euro 2024. The OPTA computer gives them a 55.28% chance of lifting the trophy, but England seems to have settled into their new formation with a three-man defensive line and has improved throughout the competition. Both teams are filled with individual talents, and it will be interesting to see which players are prioritized in this match.

Nico Williams, Marc Cucurella, Rodri, Mainoo, and Saka will be the players to watch, and the battles on the left flank will be crucial. In the midfield, both teams must be mindful of the spaces and how they neutralize the two creative players who dominate in the build-up.