Preview, Predictions and Tactics: Manchester City vs. Newcastle

Manchester City is still on top of the league table after their dramatic 2-2 draw against their title rivals, Arsenal. Unfortunately, Guardiola has suffered an enormous blow. Rodri left the pitch injured in the first half against The Gunners after just 21 minutes. Regardless, Manchester City will look to keep their undefeated momentum as they head to St. James’ Park in Newcastle.

Things haven’t been bad at Newcastle, results-wise, at the start of this season, with The Magpies having only one defeat last round against Fulham. The hosts will seek to exploit a Rodri-less Manchester City while the visitors seek to pinpoint Newcastle’s defensive weaknesses and keep up their unbeaten streak.

Quick Statistics Zone

Here are some rapid-fire statistics for you to keep in mind for this game:

• Newcastle has won just 3 encounters against Manchester City. The Citizens have won a staggering 25/31 games against The Magpies.
• Recently, we haven’t seen many goals, with only 1/5 previous games having over 2,5 goals. But, so far, Manchester City ranks 1st in goals scored and shots on target.
• We might see some corners in this game. Four previous encounters ended with over 10,5 corners and Manchester City averages 8,8 corners per game, the most in the league.
• Erling Haaland is the league’s top goalscorer, with 10 goals in 5 league games.
• Manchester City is the league leader in possession (averaging 65%) and Newcastle often prefers to concede possession and hit on the break, making this game the classic battle of styles.

Manchester City’s Injury Problems

Pep Guardiola didn’t have the ideal start of the season. Results wise, it’s going great for City, as they are undefeated in both the Premier League and the Champions League. Kevin De Bruyne was out against Arsenal after a groin injury in this year’s Champions League debut against Inter Milan. So far, we are not sure whether he will be up and running at St. James’ Park. Last season, Kevin de Bruyne was on the bench for four months and made his comeback against The Magpies. De Bruyne scored a goal in a 3-2 win for the Citizens.

Another enormous blow for Guardiola’s side is Rodri, who is out for the season with a cruciate ligament injury. City’s talisman left the pitch after just 21 minutes, when he collapsed in Arsenal’s box during a corner. This comes after he said that players could be close to striking because of the busy schedule imposed by the European Competitions. With both Champions League and Nations League coming after the European Championship, there is a heavy workload and little rest for the top players.

It will be interesting to see how Manchester City will adapt to his absence, since Rodri missed only 5 games because of injury since he joined City in 2019.

Tactical Overview – Width and Low Blocks

Control of the midfield will probably be one of the focal points for Newcastle United. In their quest to take advantage of Rodri’s absence and Kevin de Bruyne coming off an injury (that’s if he will play), Newcastle will apply pressure on the pivots trying to force a turnover.

Bruno Guimaraes will have an important role, trying to control the midfield and avoid errors in dangerous areas. Guardiola’s pressing will try to test him to see if he will repeat the same mistakes, giving the ball away straight at the penalty spot while looking to link up with the goalkeeper to avoid Fulham’s pressure.

It will be important for Guardiola to use his squad’s width, trying to stretch out Newcastle’s back line. Against Arsenal, where they faced a very stubborn low block, City failed to exploit the wings.

The Blues opted for shots outside the box, taken by their back three, and did not produce crosses or tried to penetrate through the flanks and cut back. Guardiola can also rely on Phil Foden and İlkay Gündoğan to find pockets of space and operate there. Yet, I expect the hosts to adopt a more compact and central formation, trying to force wide play.

The Anthony Gordon Problem and Lone Striker

Newcastle will rely on Alexander Isak, Harvey Barnes and Anthony Gordon. Their pace will be crucial for counterattacks and they will be the primary outlets through which Newcastle will look to break through the press or launch whenever they receive the ball. Looking at the stats, the average 1,2 shots per game coming from counterattacks, which ranks them 4th, just under Chelsea, Aston Villa and Nothingham Forest.

Despite his efforts, Gordon was ineffective against Fulham. His discomfort on the right wing, which is not his natural position, limited his ability to contribute to Newcastle’s attacking play. We’ll find out if he returns to his usual spot against City or he will remain on the right wing.

Then there is Alexander Isak, who was often let isolated. Isak is a striker that can capitalize on limited chances. Against Fulham, he was without adequate support, and Newcastle failed to penetrate and create chances, despite having 61% possession.

Watch Out for Set Pieces… Again!

Set pieces will play out an important role yet again. Last week derby’s has been settled through set pieces. Newcastle is one of the most dangerous teams on set pieces this season. With City’s occasional vulnerabilities in defending corners and free-kicks, especially without Rodri’s aerial presence, this could be a decisive chapter.

Tall players like Dan Burn and Fabian Schär can pose a significant threat from corners and free-kicks. So far, Newcastle has averaged 4,4 shots per game coming from set pieces which places them 4th in the league. So far, teams have won or lost many important games from set pieces. It remains to be seen if this trend continues.

Predictions and Conclusions

Newcastle is not in their best shape, and they have some problems to sort out. They need to sort out their midfield problems and avoid silly mistakes that cost them goals. Manchester City will look to function without Rodri and keep up their momentum. City’s strengths align with Newcastle’s weaknesses. A possession heavy team that finds and creates openings, against a team that is vulnerable defensively.

Prediction: Manchester City 3-1 Newcastle United