Southampton Seek First Win Against Wounded Manchester United: Match Preview and Tips

Southampton’s welcoming back into the Premier League hasn’t been very warm, with The Saints losing all three games so far this season and managing to score only one goal against Brentford in the previous round. Meanwhile, Manchester United has managed to get a win so far but has recently been dismantled by Arne Slot and Liverpool, with a 3-0 hammering at Old Trafford.

So as we head to St. Mary’s, the hosts will try and stop the bleeding, hopefully seeing at least a draw, while Manchester United will seek to confirm their position as one of England’s top clubs.

Quick Statistics Zone

Here are some interesting statistics for Manchester United and Southampton that you can take into account when following the game!

• Manchester United haven’t lost in 15 consecutive games against Southampton.
• The last time Southampton won three points against United was back in 2016, when Ronald Koeman managed them, and they won with a late goal by Charlie Austin in the 87th minute
• OPTA’s Supercomputer gives Manchester United a 52% chance to come up on top, while Southampton wins in just 23% of their simulations
• In 4 of their last 5 games, we saw under 2,5 goals and in 5 out of the last 7, we saw under 4,5 cards

Southampton’s Form: Missteps and Missed Opportunities

The return to the top flight for the Saints has been anything but smooth. Their third loss came in a 3-1 defeat to Brentford last time out, which saw them fall into the drop zone. With a share of 63% possession and 18 shots to their name, Southampton could not help but be punished for their defensive mistakes in giving way to the lethal counter-attacks of Brentford.

A brace by Brian Mbeumo and a scrappy one from Yoane Wissa left Southampton scratching their heads, and that was before yet another game marred by unforced errors. Defensive disorganization has been the thorn in the flesh for Southampton thus far.

The preference by Russell Martin to play out from the back has exposed his side over and over again to top high press, and Manchester United would doubtless have made note of that. Against Brentford, mistakes from Taylor Harwood-Bellis and Jan Bednarek in the centre of defence invited pressure, while there was a lack of composure in midfield—something that would ultimately see the Saints heavily punished.

Southampton’s late consolation came through Yukinari Sugawara and, although it was a beautiful goal, from a quick combination and a curved volley, was their first of the season, in a statistic that says much about a side unable to turn possession into chances.

Manchester United: Searching for a Response

Manchester United, meanwhile, were also feeling the pain from a 3-0 loss at Old Trafford to Liverpool. Erik ten Hag’s side was punished for three sloppy turnovers in midfield, each one leading directly to a goal for the Red Devils’ bitter rivals.

The scoring was opened when Casemiro misplaced a pass and it was picked off, leading to an easy finish by Luis Diaz. The Colombian doubled the lead shortly after another giveaway allowed him to do so. Mohamed Salah, the orchestrator behind both assists, added a goal of his own in the second half to seal the deal.

That result, though, underlined for Manchester United that a lot of work remains to be done if they are to translate Ten Hag’s vision into reality: the Red Devils had boasted a fairly level xG themselves (1.36 vs. Liverpool’s 1.73) but were still all at sea in transition.

Joshua Zirkzee had a couple of late chances but on the whole, United lacked the cutting edge to trouble Liverpool’s Alisson. Ten Hag’s substitution of Toby Collyer for Casemiro in the second half—a Premier League debut for the youngster—is a clear sign of United’s struggles to build a cohesive midfield formula.

The loss to Liverpool only compounded the problems that have dogged United’s inconsistent beginning to the season. They had just about conjured up a narrow win against Fulham and were woefully out of place in the 1-2 defeat at Brighton. Now, with three points from three matches, the pressure is piling on Ten Hag to quickly find solutions.

Tactical Battle: Saints’ Possession vs. United’s Press

Southampton’s approach under Russell Martin is a possession-based one, and they build slowly from the back. While this has worked, in terms of territory, and them being able to control most games, with an average possession of 68.7% so far, it has also left them open to teams who employ an aggressive pressing strategy.

The high 4-2-4 shaped pressing of Manchester United, led by Bruno Fernandes and Marcus Rashford, will be key in unsettling Southampton. His deficiencies against Liverpool may have been noted, but Liverpool’s quality is much greater and they perform much better under pressure. That said, with Southampton tending to give away cheap possession, this could be one game where United’s pressing game really comes to pay off.

Offensively, United will hope that Rashford can find his best form. The English forward has had a quiet start to the season, but this leaky Southampton side might just offer the ideal platform for him to hit right back into scoring shape. Up front, Joshua Zirkzee, trying to establish himself, hopes to open his Premier League account, while Bruno Fernandes will pull the strings from midfield.

Key Players to Watch

In a season that has been otherwise depressingly bleak, Yukinari Sugawara has been the sole bright spark for Southampton. The Japanese right-back was instrumental in Southampton’s late goal against Brentford, and his energy down the flank is crucial if Southampton is to rattle United’s backline. Defensively, he has won 80.0% of his tackles and 72.2% of his duel, placing him in the top 20% of Premier League defenders so far.

Aaron Ramsdale, the Saints’ marquee signing in goal, may also need to be at his best to keep out a United attack desperate to bounce back from their poor showing against Liverpool.

How Manchester United fare at St Mary’s is likely to depend largely on Casemiro’s ability to control the tempo in midfield. The Brazilian will look to quickly get back to top form after an uncharacteristically weak showing against Liverpool, facing a Southampton side that can dominate possession despite their struggles.

While Marcus Rashford and Bruno Fernandes carry most of the attacking burden, this might be a game where Amad Diallo or Alejandro Garnacho step up as wildcard options.

Conclusions

The best each can do is try to prove a point with this game. Southampton must prove they can pick up important points, and Manchester United is now trying to repair the damage that was done in the last game by Liverpool. Both sides leaking goals and struggling for cohesion, it has all the makings of a tense, scrappy encounter.

In the end, it’s Manchester United’s superior individual quality should see them through, but this is by no means a guarantee. The defensive frailties of Southampton could be exposed, though their possession-based approach will see them have a lot of the ball. If United can emulate the success Liverpool had in capitalising on mistakes, they should leave St. Mary’s with all three points.