What Would Trent Alexander-Arnold Bring to Real Madrid?

Liverpool has three of their superstars in the last year of their contract. Trent Alexander-Arnold, Virgil van Dijk and Mohamed Salah. Although both Virgil van Dijk and Mohamed Salah are in their thirties, Trent Alexander-Arnold is in his prime, and there are rumours of a move to Real Madrid at the end of the season.

So what will Trent Alexander-Arnold bring to Real Madrid and how would he fit into their team?

Searching for Toni Kroos‘ Impact at Madrid

Toni Kroos’ Role at Real Madrid

Toni Kroos had an enormous impact at Real Madrid, and Ancelotti has to adapt his system without him. His impact was immense. Toni Kroos, operating as a defensive midfielder, would shift to the left side of the pitch alongside the two center backs, creating a back three formation. From there, he would distribute the ball with accuracy, launching players in behind the defensive lines.

One recent example that comes to mind is the semi-final against Bayern Munchen in the Champions League last season. Toni Kroos was the distribution point for Real Madrid, who deployed an “overload-to-isolate” strategy, which left Dani Carvajal free on the right wing. Toni Kroos drops back to collect the ball from midfield, where Madrid had overloaded the left side, then plays a diagonal pass to Carvajal, who has plenty of space to deliver a cross.

Who Picks up the Slack?

Ancelotti has failed to replicate his impact. Not that Real Madrid no longer plays long balls. They still do, just as often. In their first nine games in La Liga, they attempted 621 long balls and completed 439. This matches the first nine games of last season, with 589 long balls attempted and 384 completed. The pass accuracy might seem higher now, but that’s because of the less risky long ball attempts.

The most interesting part of those statistics is the primary source of long passes. Right now, Eder Militao averages 4,3 accurate long balls and Antonio Rudiger averages 4 accurate long balls. More important is that Militao has a 62% accuracy, while Rudiger is at 68%.

In the 23/24 season, Toni Kroos was the principal supplier of long balls, with an average of 7 accurate long balls per game. What’s more impressive is the accuracy of 86%. When you add up the numbers, Militao and Rudiger have matched Kroos’s output, but with much less efficiency.

Will Alexander-Arnold Replace Toni Kroos?

The short answer is “No”. Then you might wonder why I prefaced this with Toni Kroos’ importance in Real Madrid? It is because I have seen this narrative a lot. Looking at the numbers, we can see the source of this. Trent Alexander-Arnold averaged 5,3 accurate long passes per game last season, but with an efficiency of just 44%. He also under performed in the assists department, with 4 assists from a xA (expected assists) of 6,09. Meanwhile, Kroos is the exact opposite, having 8 assists from a similar xA of 5,93.

This becomes clearer when we look at their profiles and playing styles. Toni Kroos is a deep-lying playmaker, composed and almost impossible to press. Trent Alexander-Arnold is a fullback who often moves into midfield but also pushes forward. We can see this if we compare the two heatmaps of their previous seasons.

Although they both like to play long balls, what Trent Alexander-Arnold could replace Toni Kroos for is free kicks. Toni Kroos handled Real Madrid’s free kicks, and Trent Alexander-Arnold does a great job in this chapter.

So Who Would Trent Alexander-Arnold Replace? What Would be His Role?

This question is very simple to answer. He would be a good backup for Dani Carvajal. Real Madrid has already agreed to renew Carvajal’s contract until 2026, but the defender is 32 years old and his performance would only decrease. Lucas Vazquez, the other main right-back option, is also 33.

Although not as solid, Alexander-Arnold could replace Carvajal in time and bring in some Toni Kroos flavour, only higher up the pitch. Trent likes to go high and cross, having 2 accurate crosses last season with an accuracy of 33%. He is like Kroos in ball progression, with the same averages for progressive distance and passes, and is a substantial source of through balls.

Fitting Into The System

It is easy to see how would Trent fit into the current Real Madrid squad. They have two forwards, Vinicius and Mbappe, who prefer the left side and excel at getting past defenders. They are also a great counter-attacking threat.

Last year in the Champions League, there were several instances where Vinicius was launched in a dangerous counter attack. The goal he scored against Manchester City, where he sprinted on the left wing to put it into the net. Or the way he tricked Bayern’s defense by coming forward and then sprinting in behind, taking advantage of the space left by the tracking defender. Toni Kroos provided the through ball, but we can see Trent doing the same.

Ancelotti might also use his diagonal pass ability to isolate Vincius or Mbappe down the left wing for them to receive the long ball from Alexander-Arnold and try to beat their defender (which they often do). Since both drift to the left, crosses and deliveries from the right would suit them well.

Conclusions

It’s unclear if Trent Alexander-Arnold will leave Liverpool, and if he does, it likely won’t be until the summer, so there’s still a long wait. He could offer a lot to Real Madrid, but if he joins, he’d likely have to settle for being Carvajal’s backup. At least in the beginning. He will not replace Toni Kroos, but he might bring back some parts of him.