Why are Crystal Palace Struggling? Looking at Oliver Glasner’s Statistics

Crystal Palace did not have a dream start to the season. The Eagles are in the relegation zone, with only three points from seven games. A position they have not been in since March 2018. So far, they have yet to secure a win in the Premier League, despite a manageable first seven games, as showed by the OPTA rankings.

Several factors contribute to this struggle. The adaptation to a new tactical system under Oliver Glasner, injuries and squad depth play an important role in Crystal Palace’s slow start, but there is also hope and reasons to be optimistic.

Tactical Changes, Growing Pains and Squad Depth

Under Oliver Glasner, Crystal Palace deployed a 3-4-3 formation, unlike other teams in the Premier League. Alongside Brentford, The Eagles are the only team who constantly starts with three centre backs. During build-up, many teams transition to a back three, with one fullback moving into the midfield and the other joining the two center-backs to form the defensive trio. But, without the ball, they shift into the usual back four.

Many managers have deployed this formation successfully, whether it is Simone Inzaghi’s Inter Milan, Thomas Tuchel and Antonio Conte at Chelsea or Domenico Tedesco at RB Leipzig. What are the key considerations when transitioning to a back three? One crucial aspect that makes this formation work is obviously your squad composition.

Transfers and Back Line Depth

When transitioning from a back four to a back three, it’s important to have flexibility in the defensive line. Also, you need strong options for one of the team’s most crucial and demanding positions. The wing-backs.

During the summer, Crystal Palace has made a few transfers to add depth to their back line. They signed the Wolfsburg defender Maxence Lacroix for €18 millions, and Chadi Riad, Barcelona’s defender, loaned to Real Betis for €15 millions. Trevor Chalobah also joined as a loan from Chelsea, giving Oliver Glasner seven options for the central defender role.

Where Are The Wing Backs?

The problem arises when we look at Crystal Palace’s squad depth for wing-backs. There are only two. Daniel Muñoz and Tyrick Mitchell. Nathaniel Clyne is the only other viable option, stepping in against Liverpool when Muñoz had to leave after just 17 minutes. Beyond Clyne, Glasner lacks other strong alternatives. He might improvise with Will Hughes or Jean-Philippe Mateta (who came in as a sub for Mitchell), but these changes will definitely affect the formation structure and shape, as those players are not traditional wing-backs.

Statistics Are Not Kind to Glasner This Season

So far in the season, Crystal Palace has struggled to score and convert their chances. They have scored only one goal from open play, the lowest in the league tied with Ipswich.

They created chances, tallying up a xG of 9,44 so far. But they lack good decision making in the final third and a strong midfielder, who makes it difficult for the forwards to receive an excellent service. This makes them one of the biggest underperformers at the start of the season. So how do The Eagles create their chances? First, they rely on the long shot for their chances, averaging 5,3 shots from outside the box.

Apart from shooting from outside the box, Crystal Palace also relies on set pieces to generate their chances. Two of their five goals came from set pieces and they generate 4,6 shots per game from them. What does that mean? So far, Crystal Palace is one of the best teams at generating shots from set pieces, alongside Manchester City, Arsenal and Tottenham, with Arsenal, known for their set piece danger scoring only one more goal than The Eagles.

Crystal Palace Defensive Statistics

The defense hasn’t fully settled yet either. One huge pain point for Crystal Palace is their aerial duels. They lost the most aerial duels in the league with 137. The Eagles have been involved in the most aerial battles so far, which explains the big number of lost duels, but one fact stands. The percentage is not good. They win just over 40% of their aerial duels, which makes them an easy target for crosses and corner kicks.

Putting our feet on the ground for a minute, we notice another interesting statistic for Crystal Palace. How did Liverpool get their goal against the Palace? Tsimikas was in midfield in front of the entire Palace defensive structure. He found Gakpo on the wing with a through ball behind the entire Palace defense and he crossed it for Jota to score the opening goal just ten minutes in.

As a matter of fact, Crystal Palace is vulnerable to through balls, and in the first seven rounds, their opponents squeezed in 18 through balls through Palace’s defensive lines. This ranks them fourth just behind Brighton, West Ham and Ipswich Town. With the season just beginning and a small sample size, it’s likely the issue with through balls will be resolved over time as positional adjustments are made and player relationships develop, once Glasner finds the right formula.

Is There Hope for Crystal Palace?

To be brief, yes, there is plenty. First, Oliver Glasner is not known for making an immediate impact on the teams he managed. There is also a transition period when changing the system and introducing new players. Glasner himself declared: “I can’t say (it will be) in three weeks. My experience is that when we can really see it gets better and better, and it is in the mind of the players, it takes up to three months at past clubs. Of my first eight games in Frankfurt (managing previous club Eintracht), there were five draws and three losses. Then the journey started, I hope we start better here.”. This is a more than reasonable point to take.

Players will find their tempo and the back line will tighten. There is value and depth in Crystal Palace’s defense and as the season goes on, communication and cooperation will improve.

Offensively, even though they lost Michael Olise, Eberechi Eze is looking great. At the moment, he averages 3,9 shots per game, ranking him third in the league. Compared to other attacking midfielders and wingers from the top 5 competitions, he is in the top 10% for scoring and number of shots.

Another key player in Crystal Palace’s offense is Jean-Philippe Mateta, who massively over performed last season. He scored 16 goals from a xG of just 10,94. In the Olympic games, he scored 5 goals in 6 games with France’s Under-23 team. This means he’s entering the season without proper rest, which affects his performance, but it should balance out as the season progresses.

Right now, Crystal Palace has under performed their OPTA expected points of 7,59, with just three points in the first seven games. The supercomputer predicts a season finish in the 15th slot of the table, with 12,46% chances to be relegated. Is it a harsh prediction? Probably. I believe that once things fall into place, Crystal Palace will start finding their form and picking up points, if not against the top 5 teams, then at least in the more manageable fixtures, unlike they’ve done so far.