Wolverhampton vs Southampton – Preview, Predictions and Live Stats – Matchday 11

ByCalin Jula

Wolverhampton and Ipswich Town are the only two teams left in the Premier League without a single win. Southampton has finally gotten their first victory against Everton in the previous round, thanks to a late goal by Adam Armstrong. As the Wolves prepare to enter the second international break this season, they will be determined to get their first win at Molineux Stadium.

Wolverhampton vs Southampton Live Stats

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Form, Standings and Head to Head

Wolverhampton is in a terrible form so far with 7 losses and three draws. They also have an awful goal difference of -13. The OPTA simulations gave them an expected ranking in the 18th position. At the moment they are dead last, with just three points.

Things are not looking wonderful for Southampton. They are in the 19th spot of the table, just one point above the Wolves. Their form is even worse with 8 losses and just one draw, but things might look up for The Saints as they got their first victory against Everton and a 1-0 loss to Manchester City.

Heading into this encounter, history favours the hosts. The Wolves have not lost in their last 5 consecutive games against The Saints and have been defeated only three times. Southampton’s last win was back in a 2021 FA Cup game, where they got a 2-0 victory thanks to goals by Ings and Armstrong.

Wolverhampton vs Southampton form, standings and Head to head

Tactical Preview – Empty Possession, Hopeful Counters

We all know that Southampton tries to adopt the positional play principles, control possession and dictate the tempo of the game. Yet most of their goals came because of individual skill and not systemic design. The Saints are in the top 5 teams for possession and touches, reflecting their overzealous ball circulation. Unfortunately, the number of touches declines sharply as they exit their defensive third. Looking at shot quality and chance creation, we see that their conversion rate is just 6% compared to Wolves’ 13% and they average a xG of 0,10 per shot.

While it is hard for Southampton to penetrate and keep possession, the task will be even tougher against Wolverhampton. The hosts are leading the league in tackles in the defensive third. They will look to catch Southampton off guard and strike on a swift counter. This has worked well for them, as 4 of their 14 goals came from a counter attacking situation.

One crucial aspect for both teams is their inability to proper defend against set pieces. Out of the 27 goals Wolves conceded, 9 of them came from a set piece. As for Southampton, 7 out of 19 concessions came from set pieces.

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Wolverhampton vs Southampton Prediction

Wolverhampton comes in as heavy favourites, winning 54,3% of the times in OPTA simulations, while Southampton comes on top in 22,2%. Wolves will definitely look to get their first Premier League win before the international break and they also have home advantage. While they are bottom last in the standings, they are not a weak team without talent.

So here are a few predictions and betting tips to keep in mind:

  • Wolverhampton to win or draw: Based on the OPTA simulations, as well as their home advantage and willingness to get a home win, this match is poised to go in favour of the hosts.
  • Possible Yellow Cards: Both teams average 3 yellow cards per game. Southampton ranks 3rd in the league for the total number of yellow cards, while Wolverhampton ranks 5th. It is very possible that the referee will not shy away from giving frequent warnings.
  • Both teams under 2,5 goals: Although we might see some goals this game, we probably will not see that many. I don’t see either team (who averages one goal per game) to go on a scoring spree.

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